Researchers at the USDA's Agricultural Research Service are using predictive models powered by artificial intelligence to anticipate where New World screwworm infestations may emerge and spread across the United States, the agency said. The system analyzes ecological, environmental, and historical information to guide surveillance and control efforts.
The models assess habitat suitability, temperature and precipitation patterns, and historical outbreak data to identify regions where the pest could establish itself and the pathways it may follow. This information will help the agency deploy resources—including aircraft, personnel, and sterile insects—to areas where they can have the greatest impact, according to the USDA.
The modeling system supports the USDA's multi-pronged eradication strategy, which includes increasing surveillance, implementing Sterile Insect Technique programs that release sterilized flies to disrupt the pest's reproductive cycle, and evaluating the effectiveness of current prevention strategies. Kim Lohmeyer, director of the ARS Knipling-Bushland Livestock Insects Research Laboratory in Kerrville, Texas, said the models are already guiding decisions about where to increase livestock and wildlife surveillance, but cautioned that the system "cannot predict every scenario, especially those impacted by unpredictable variables like people transporting infested animals."
The agency advised livestock owners not to move animals exhibiting signs of infestation and to consult state animal health officials before moving livestock or wildlife in or out of affected areas.