When we learned during spring training about Shohei Ohtani 's 2026 goal of winning the National League Cy Young Award , it was hard to know how realistic it was.
From an ability standpoint, it was more than doable.
On a per-162-game basis, he had averaged a 13-7 record with a 3.00 ERA, 143 ERA+, 228 strikeouts and 5.5 bWAR entering this season.
He would have to upgrade from that, but it was a great jumping-off point.
From a quantity standpoint, well, that's when questions arose.
Ohtani has qualified for an ERA title just once.
He pitches for the Los Angeles Dodgers , a team that has the luxury of slow-playing their starting pitchers until the postseason.
And there was the considerable additional factor of Ohtani, as one of the game's greatest hitters, also being an MVP-caliber designated hitter.
Flash forward to now and Ohtani has been more like a full-time rotation ace -- and his results are better than ever. In other words, the Cy Young objective for Ohtani is very much on the table.
But the race for that honor in the NL is shaping up as a fierce one.
You'll see that as we look at the 2026 award races in the first of our monthly check-ins.
As we go through the early pecking order for each honor, keep this much in mind in regard to the game's best player: If Ohtani does indeed win his first Cy Young Award, there is a very good chance he'll also take home his fourth straight Most Valuable Player Award.
Front-runner: Bobby Witt Jr. , Kansas City Royals
Next nine : 2.
Nick Kurtz , Athletics; 3.
Shea Langeliers , Athletics; 4.
Cody Bellinger , New York Yankees; 5.
Kevin McGonigle , Detroit Tigers; 6.
Aaron Judge , Yankees; 7.
Miguel Vargas , Chicago White Sox; 8.
Mike Trout , Los Angeles Angels; 9.
Yordan Alvarez , Houston Astros; 10.
Willson Contreras , Boston Red Sox
Leader trend: Witt has had a pedestrian start at the plate, posting a batting average and on-base percentage in line with past seasons but with an isolated power number that's down -- or at least it will be until he goes on a power tear.
So, why is Witt a strong early frontrunner in this category?
He's just really, really good -- at everything.
According to FanGraphs' DEF metric , Witt has been the most valuable defender in the major leagues.
He is seventh in BSR, FanGraphs' bottom-line baserunning metric.
He's a shortstop, with the positional value that goes with that designation.
Add it all up and of the 31.9 runs above replacement that Witt has put up -- resulting in a 3.3 fWAR figure that is a more than a half-win better than any other AL player -- only 8.2 of those runs come from batting.
And his offensive numbers will almost certainly go up from here.
This might be the year Witt lands his first AL MVP Award, though it would help matters if the struggling Royals mount some sort of playoff push over the months to come.
Biggest mover: Kurtz's AXE has jumped from 117.3 at the end of April, and his MLB rank has leaped from 51st to sixth.
Kurtz is an on-base master.
His OBP over three years at Wake Forest was .510.
He only logged 33 games in the minors, but it was .440 there.
So far in the majors, he's at .404 and leads the AL at .448 this season.
Kurtz also is hitting .290 as a big leaguer, which in the current league context is elite.
He is not a take-and-rake hitter.
Kurtz is down a bit in the power category, and while that should change, it's worth noting that his swing has been producing a lot more line drives this season at the expense of fly balls, which is why the homers are down even as his exit velocities are up. Kurtz's profile is one that plays anywhere at the top of the order.
After leading off for much of the season, he has hit second or third in recent games.
If this switch was made to put Kurtz in more run-producing spots, it's easy to understand.
His RBI percentage -- runs driven in given the number of opportunities -- is among the 10 best in baseball.
Keep an eye on: This Awards Watch catches Judge at what's likely the nadir of a down cycle that included a stretch of 11 games without a homer or an RBI.
Lest we forget that this is Aaron Judge, he snapped the streak with a game-winning homer against the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday.
Despite the slump, he's still on pace to top 50 homers.
It's just been a moderately bad month for Judge, one that is probably very bad news for the pitchers whom Judge will face in June.
Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani , Dodgers
Next nine: 2.
Corbin Carroll , Arizona Diamondbacks; 3.
Jordan Walker , St. Louis Cardinals; 4.
Brice Turang , Milwaukee Brewers; 5.
Matt Olson , Atlanta Braves; 6.
JJ Wetherholt , Cardinals; 7.
Andy Pages , Dodgers; 8.
Drake Baldwin , Braves; 9.
Elly De La Cruz , Cincinnati Reds; 10.
Xavier Edwards , Miami Marlins
Leader trend: Ohtani has an easier path to winning his fourth straight MVP than he has to winning his first Cy Young.
That's a strange sentence to write, and you couldn't write it about any other player, ever, but it applies here.
Among NL hitters, Ohtani ranks in the top 10 to 12 in offense-only metrics such as runs created, offensive winning percentage and OPS+.
That's really good but not at MVP level.
However, when you layer on the value of a pitcher with a 0.73 ERA over 49 innings, it's a combination impossible to match.
As for the down season at the plate, his percentages are similar to those of 2022, when he logged a career-high 166 innings pitched for the Angels.
So, maybe this is the penalty for deploying Ohtani as a full-fledged DH and a starting pitcher.
Or perhaps more likely, his early hitting percentages are going to improve.
If, or when, that happens, Ohtani's enormous early edge in the MVP race will only grow.
Biggest mover: With a torrid May, Carroll has positioned himself for the third top-10 MVP finish in his five seasons as a big leaguer and is, for now, the most likely candidate to seize the opportunity if Ohtani were to falter or turn up injured. Carroll began the month with a solid overall ranking in AXE at No. 39 but jumped to fifth across all of MLB after his two triples on Sunday.
Carroll is now on pace for 25 triples.
No player has had that many in 101 years; Kiki Cuyler, in 1925, was the last to do it.
It's kind of silly to quote paces when it comes to triples, which don't exactly accumulate in a steady, predictable way.
But consider this: Not only does Carroll play home games in MLB's most triple-friendly park, per Statcast park factors, but including road trips to Colorado, San Francisco and Kansas City, 65 of Carroll's 110 possible remaining games would come in four of the majors' five most triple-friendly venues.
A big triple total won't win you an MVP, but it is the kind of historical curiosity that turns heads, which would, in turn, call attention to Carroll's impressive overall production, not to mention his exciting style of play.
Keep an eye on: The sudden maturation of Walker has been a sight to behold.
If you've seen him at the plate much this season, you know it's not just a matter of a numbers spike.
Walker simply looks like a premier hitter after two years of very much not looking like one.
His approach is greatly improved, and his quality of contact has been elite.
Walker now commands a plate appearance in a way he rarely did during his disappointing 2024 and 2025 seasons.
Now, Walker resembles the hitter we thought he'd be by now, back when he broke in at age 21 armed with hyperbolic scouting reports and a solid rookie season.
The forecasts suggest negative regression from here, and it's not hard to understand why.
His OPS+ simply doesn't track with the 89 he'd put up in more than 1,000 plate appearances entering this season.
But this Walker is not that Walker.